While UFC thrives, is MMA on the verge of decline? The statistics raise alarms

The MMA world is a curious beast these days. On one side, the UFC is sitting pretty on a throne built with gold contracts and blockbuster deals. On the other, the global MMA landscape paints a grimmer picture, with professional bouts seemingly on a slow, steady retreat. Fighters and fans alike are left scratching their heads as the once explosive growth appears to stall, leaving behind a trail of shuttered gyms, canceled regional shows, and dwindling fight cards from the corners of the globe that once roared with energy. The statistics don’t lie — the MMA boom that felt like it would roll on forever is showing signs of fatigue, prompting a raw and honest look at what’s really hitting the mat beneath the UFC’s shining spotlight.

From the U.S. to Brazil, from Russia to the UK, the number of professional fights has dropped like a fighter missing a takedown defense — abruptly and painfully. Yet the UFC’s juggernaut continues to thrive, making more noise, snagging bigger deals, and expanding its fanbase. It’s a strange paradox, like watching a fighter dominate the cage while his corner deteriorates. Does MMA face a broad decline behind the scenes, or is this just a reshuffle of cards in a sport hungry for a new hand? Let’s dive into what the cold, hard numbers reveal and why the fight for MMA’s future isn’t quite finished.

The Peak MMA Phenomenon: When Growth Hits the Ceiling

“Peak MMA” sounds like a headline from a disaster flick, but it’s more of an economic reality check than a knock-out punch. Just like the old “peak oil” theory imagined a point where oil production would hit its limit then tnoddle into a decline, MMA’s explosion of fights worldwide seems to have plateaued. According to detailed data from Tapology, the peak in professional MMA bouts was reached in 2017 with a staggering 20,692 fights. Imagine that—20,000-plus nights of sweat, blood, and heart, all worldwide, making hearts pound and fans scream. But ever since that summit, the descent has been unmistakable.

The immediate culprit was COVID-19, shutting down everything in 2020 and making gyms and arenas ghost towns overnight. But the real kicker is what happened after the pandemic’s initial storm blew over. The bounce back was a bounce off a brick wall. Instead of soaring back to glory, the MMA fight count stagnated and began to dip again, settling at 18,096 bouts in 2023, sliding further down to 16,808 fights in 2024, and projections for 2025 hover near a grim 13,636 — a nosedive that could make any promoter break a sweat.

This isn’t just a blip—it’s a structural shift. The data tells us:

• The U.S. lost over half its professional MMA fights since 2009, dropping from 6,266 fights to just over 3,027 in 2024. If the U.S. is the engine, it’s now stuttering.
• Brazil, the hotbed of head-kicks and silky BJJ transitions, peaked in 2013 and tumbled by about 44% down to 2,181 bouts in 2024.
• Russia, no stranger to heavyweight wars and sambo specialists, slipped from 3,141 fights in 2018 to 1,782 last year, a stark 43% decline.
• Traditional Anglosphere fighters’ bases like Canada, the U.K., and Australia are limping too, their combined numbers more than halved from 1,941 in 2011 down to 845 in 2024.

When the top three battlefronts in MMA start to look like ghost towns, alarm bells sound louder than a referee’s cage-side buzzer. Is this just a scene of fighters cooling off, or are we facing something a lot more profound?

Listing the Signs of a Structural Slump in MMA Markets

• Decline in the number of professional fights across multiple major countries.
• Reduced visibility and media attention for regional promotions.
• Smaller event cards and fewer fight opportunities for rising talent.
• Increase in fighter dependency on a single dominant promotion (primarily UFC).
• Contraction of rival companies, with mergers and acquisitions limiting competition.

Country	Peak Year	Peak Bouts	2024 Bouts	% Change
United States	2009	6,266	3,027	-52%
Brazil	2013	3,875	2,181	-44%
Russia	2018	3,141	1,782	-43%
Canada, U.K., Australia (combined)	2011	1,941	845	-56%

Why the UFC Is Booming While MMA at Large Stumbles

Before raising your eyebrow any higher, let’s clear one thing up: the UFC isn’t in trouble. In fact, it’s like a heavyweight champ who just signed a sponsorship deal with a fancy watch company — money and glitz are everywhere. The $1.5 billion ESPN contract is no joke, and the UFC’s pay-per-view numbers, despite some dents, still generate bank.

The paradox of UFC’s thriving success and broader MMA’s shrinkage is as quirky as a fighter who claims he’s “not tired” right before gasping for air in round three. The UFC has morphed into a monopolistic powerhouse, gobbling rivals, hoarding talent, and locking fighters into restrictive contracts that make branching out a fight of a different kind — the legal kind.

The antitrust lawsuit brewing behind the scenes shines light on this strategy: By strangling competition, the UFC ensures it remains king of the jungle, often at the expense of overall market growth. Former CEO Lorenzo Fertitta’s infamous text saying to “keep taking these f***ers oxygen till they tap out” wasn’t a pep talk — it was strategy. As a result:

• Bellator’s acquisition by PFL in 2023 failed to ignite fresh momentum. Instead, talent hemorrhaged from the merged company.
• ONE Championship, once Asia’s bright hope for MMA dominance, is dialing back MMA events, pivoting toward Muay Thai to survive.
• Invicta FC, a crucial feeder for women’s MMA, has shrunk to a shadow of its former self, with fewer shows and faded media presence.

The implication? The UFC is not just a thriving promotion but a nearly solitary beacon in an increasingly barren industry landscape. For many fighters, especially up-and-comers, this means fewer places to punch, wrestle, and shine — and a heavy dose of dependence on UFC’s mercy to grab the spotlight or even a payday.

Promotion	Status	Recent Challenges
UFC	Dominant	Ongoing growth, ESPN deal, PPV fluctuations
Bellator	Declining	Acquisition by PFL, talent release, low viewership
PFL	Stable but Struggling	Trying to fill void post-Bellator merger
ONE Championship	Pivoting	Scaling down MMA, focusing on Muay Thai
Invicta FC	Reduced Activity	Smaller event schedule, media visibility down

The Silent Shrinking of Regional MMA Scenes Worldwide

Ask any seasoned fight fan, and they’ll tell you the grass is rarely greener outside the cage, but lately, it’s been downright barren. Regional promotions like Jungle Fight in Brazil, Rizin Fighting Federation in Japan, KSW in Poland, and the Continental Fighting Championships (CFFC) in the U.S. have all felt the squeeze.

There was a time these feeders were hunting grounds for UFC-bound prospects or self-sufficient ecosystems with their own loyal fanbases and local legends. Now they are battling financial droughts, low attendance, and media invisibility. The talent pipeline is thinner than ever, creating a vicious cycle:

• Fewer fights mean less income for fighters struggling to make ends meet.
• Less income discourages fighters from sticking around or training full time.
• Less fighter depth results in weaker cards and dwindling fan engagement.
• Lower fan engagement reduces sponsorships and media attention.
• Reduced sponsorship and media support leads to fewer events — rinse and repeat.

Canada’s LFA (Legacy Fighting Alliance), once a beacon of hope for budding fighters, saw its fight numbers follow the same downward trend, making one wonder if the ‘next big thing’ will ever emerge from these shadows again.

Meanwhile, in the land of rising sun, Japan’s MMA scene, highlighted by Rizin Fighting Federation, remains a stubborn exception to the global slump. Its cult-like domestic fanbase and historical roots in the sport create a unique resiliency. Still, even there, survival is a daily battle rather than a guaranteed legacy.

Regional Promotion	Country/Region	Challenges	Current Status
Jungle Fight	Brazil	Financial struggles, lower attendance	Reduced events and visibility
Rizin Fighting Federation	Japan	Stable fanbase, cultural support	Steady but limited growth
KSW	Poland	Smaller market, competition limits growth	Ongoing but struggling
LFA	U.S.	Declining fight opportunities, less exposure	Reduced scale
CFFC	U.S.	Less media coverage, packed schedule troubles	Fading prominence

Fighter Perspectives: Opportunities Narrow as Spotlight Brightens on UFC

For fighters, this cage curtain call means more than just fewer bouts. The tough truth is the talent pool sharpens, but opportunities for newcomers blunt. If you believe a fighter with questionable takedown defense is always safe, think again: The UFC’s tightening grip means those wildcards often get cut early to keep the cage star-studded.

Upcoming warriors face a brutal funnel — those blessed with UFC contracts dance in the spotlight, and everyone else dukes it out in increasingly shadowy rings or flips into parallel career paths. This squeeze makes funding careers, securing sponsorships, and earning paychecks a constant grind. A fighter’s success is less about pure skill and more about being in the right place at the right time under the UFC’s thumb.

Some fighters juggle the struggle beautifully, turning regional bouts into big breaks, while others fade from the scene like a failed cardio session at 4 a.m. But all know the stakes:

• Less regional events mean fewer paid performances.
• Fewer opportunities delay or derail UFC dreams.
• The UFC Fight Pass ecosystem absorbs much of the remaining market spotlight.
• Fewer non-UFC platforms push fighters into hard career decisions.

Those tough enough to rise have to be as crafty as a seasoned vet dodging leg kicks during a title run.

Where Does MMA Head Next? Signs of Hope Amidst the Struggle

Lurking in the shadows of dwindling bouts and closed promotions is the possibility of resurrection. Sure, it might feel like we’re heading for MMA’s twilight, but history loves a comeback story. The UFC’s $1.5 billion deal, new stars emerging from underdog scenes, and the unrelenting passion of fighters fuel the sport’s core.

Besides the dominant force of UFC and the stubborn survivors like Japan’s Rizin, there are sparks of renewal. The PFL, despite swallowing Bellator’s remains, continues to push grand shows and innovate with season formats. The challenge is big — restoring what’s lost requires a fresh injection of fan excitement, market diversity, and regional heartbeats.

Here’s what might keep MMA from becoming a fading relic:

• Revived regional promotions hosting stacked cards with local flavor.
• Fresh, dynamic personalities breaking through, bringing fan energy.
• Innovative fight formats that shake up dull matchmaking cycles.
• Opening global markets beyond traditional powerhouses.

Let’s not forget, MMA’s heart beats strongest when the scrappy, hungry underdogs get their shot — the kind that turns sport into legend and fighters into heroes. Despite the data sounding alarms, the cage often hosts surprises, and MMA may yet surprise us all.

Potential Revitalization Factors	Examples
Regional promotions resurgence	Jungle Fight staging major events, KSW all-in campaigns
New fighter stars	Breakout phenoms in Fight Pass circuits
Innovative formats	PFL’s seasonal league approach
Global market expansion	Asia beyond ONE, emerging scenes in Africa

It’s a wild, bumpy ride ahead, but if MMA ever had a shot of glory beyond its boom years, it’s now or never. Fans and fighters alike are watching closely, hoping for the next epic saga to unfold inside the cage.